Vietnam's Game Plan to Overcome U.S. Tariff Shock

Vietnam needs proactive diplomacy and strategic import policy changes to navigate a 46% tariff on its exports to the U.S., says trade expert.


Vietnam’s key export sectors, including seafood, face mounting challenges following the U.S. tariff hike. Photo: Hoang Ha

In response to the U.S. government’s recent imposition of a 46% retaliatory tariff on Vietnamese exports, economic expert Dr. Le Quoc Phuong believes the Vietnamese government should push for further negotiations and show goodwill by reducing import tariffs on American goods to help balance bilateral trade.

‘We acted swiftly - but the U.S. acted even faster’

In an interview with VietNamNet, Dr. Le Quoc Phuong, former Deputy Director of the Center for Industry and Trade Information under the Ministry of Industry and Trade, shared his insights on the new U.S. tariff measures.

“The Trump 2.0 administration made it clear even before taking office that import tariffs would be a key policy weapon. True to form, President Donald Trump moved quickly after inauguration, issuing sweeping tariff hikes on goods from various countries,” Phuong explained.

The April 3 announcement marks the most aggressive move yet, applying new tariffs across all U.S. imports.

Vietnam is among the most affected, as the U.S. is its largest export market. In 2024, Vietnam exported nearly USD 120 billion worth of goods to the U.S., accounting for 29.5% of total export turnover. Meanwhile, imports from the U.S. remain relatively low, creating a large trade surplus. In that context, the U.S. decision was foreseeable - but the 46% rate still came as a shock.

Phuong noted that the Vietnamese government had been proactive. In mid-March, Minister of Industry and Trade Nguyen Hong Dien visited the U.S. as the Prime Minister’s special envoy, offering numerous commitments to boost American imports. Major Vietnamese conglomerates signed business agreements with U.S. firms totaling over USD 90.3 billion, scheduled for implementation starting in 2025.

On March 31, the Vietnamese government issued Decree No. 73 reducing import tariffs on several items, including U.S. goods like wood products, chicken, apples, cherries, LNG, ethanol, soybeans, and more.

On April 1, the Ministry of Industry and Trade formed a Drafting Committee to develop new regulations on Vietnam’s strategic trade control. A draft decree was published the same day to solicit feedback.

“These steps show the government’s urgency and resolve. But the U.S. acted faster,” Phuong remarked.

Most affected industries

The hardest-hit sectors will be those with the largest export volumes to the U.S. - electronics, phones, computers, and components, which are dominated by foreign direct investment (FDI) companies. Others include seafood, furniture, textiles, footwear, and agricultural products, all of which heavily rely on the U.S. market.

What Vietnam can do

Phuong stressed that Vietnam is not in a position to retaliate as aggressively as the EU, China, or Canada due to its smaller economy and deep dependence on the U.S. market.

“Negotiation is essential,” he said. “We should also consider further lowering import duties on U.S. goods - quickly. Since Vietnamese and American products are more complementary than competitive, the impact on domestic production would be minimal.”

Phuong argued that import tariff reductions, though costly in the short term, are a worthwhile sacrifice to reduce trade tensions. Supporting policies for affected Vietnamese businesses will also be key.

Survival strategies for Vietnamese businesses

Phuong emphasized that despite global instability, the U.S. remains an irreplaceable market for Vietnamese exporters. However, businesses now need to renegotiate with American partners so that both sides share the tax burden.

“If buyers stop importing, they’ll face production delays. But if they import without raising prices, Vietnamese suppliers can’t absorb the costs. The only solution is to sit down and negotiate mutually acceptable terms.”

Enterprises must accept that profit margins will shrink. In the meantime, they should streamline operations, cut costs, and conserve raw materials to stay afloat.

“I believe the U.S. is also watching how Vietnam responds. If we show good faith by reducing tariffs and increasing imports, Washington may lower the tariff in the future. The real question is: how far can we go?”


VietBF@ Sưu tập